Spatial Computing Is Lagging, For Now

I mentioned on Friday how XR feels left in the dust by advertisers and developers - compared to gaming.

Well, WSJ rolled out an article today confirming that, revealing a steady decrease in new apps built on the Apple Vision Pro (AVP).

Imo, feels like a good product that just showed up just a bit too soon – and maybe a bit overpriced.

Not too surprising that dropping a $3,499 “spatial computer” into a nascent market was risky. It was a crapshoot no matter how you look at it. This is bleeding-edge tech – metaverse goggles feel niche and unnatural. A try-on reserved for techies. It’s not necessarily something I’d pull out at brunch to impress my socialite friends.

By coincidence, I just had my first organic conversation about it yesterday. A friend had storied a picture on IG – she was wearing the headset and I honestly couldn’t tell if it was “ski goggles or the metaverse”.

My high-level take: XR (a catch-all term for Mixed Reality, Virtual Reality, Augmented Reality, spatial, etc.) will take time to become normalized. I mean, people thought sending emails, online dating, and swiping your credit card online was bizarre only in my lifetime – and I’m still in my twenties.

XR will get there, but it’s going to take time to feel natural. While Apple has a knack for turning skeptics into believers, the world just isn’t XR-ready yet.

With a lagging user base, Apple also has to get developers excited. App releases slowed dramatically after the initial buzz, and first-quarter sales plummeted 80% by its second quarter.

It’s not just the $3,499 price tag — XR is still finding its footing — waiting for the “killer app” to push mass adoption (sound familiar, crypto?).

Outlook for spatial computing

Apple isn’t playing for today; they’re laying the groundwork for the future.

Same with Meta, Snap, and every other company that’s not afraid to swing for the fences. Remember, the iPhone wasn’t an instant hit either. There’s a whole ecosystem brewing, and stumbling out of the gate is part of the process.

With its deep pockets and army of developers, Apple can afford to stumble now and figure it out later. And once that killer app or breakthrough use case drops, XR will be the next frontier of computing, no doubt.

TLDR

Vision Pro might not be the slam dunk Apple hoped for (yet)... but don’t sleep on XR. Tech breakthroughs often start slow, but when they hit, they change everything forever. AI was making NYT headlines way back in 2013 and didn’t pick up steam until ~ 2021.

So, yeah, maybe the Vision Pro isn’t there yet in year one—but neither was the iPhone, the iPad, or even the Mac.

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